This paper does not represent US Government views.
system is a state-owned monopoly that moves 1.3 billion passengers and 1.3 billion tons of freight annually, which represents 83 percent of all freight in Russia (not counting petroleum pipeline operations).xc The rail system is most highly developed in the European part of Russia and along the southern reaches of Siberia. Nonetheless, a significant portion of the rail system⎯such as the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM)⎯cross permafrost zones, so they will be subject to the same risks of subsidence and structural weakening from permafrost melt as well as increased vulnerability at river crossings from increased Siberian river flows, as discussed above.
Russia’s road transport systems are much less significant for cross-country transportation, but they too will be affected by climate change. Some of the impacts may be positive, in that reduced winter snowpack in European Russia (where the road system is much more developed and much more used than in the Arctic or the Far East) may reduce road hazards and wear and tear on existing roads. Other impacts will be negative, however. The increase in weather variability, with elevated risks of severe storms and downpours, may lead to elevated dangers for road transportation and risks of mudslides and erosion in mountainous areas and near rivers and floodplains. In the Far North and Far East, where wintertime ice roads have been a means of wintertime survival, shorter cold seasons will result in significantly reduced road transport capacity.xci
River transport, which is another key element of Russia’s total transportation system, will experience both new problems and benefits from climate change to 2030, varying by region. In areas such as the Don River Basin in Russia’s southwest, where there will be a reduction in total water flow, river navigation may encounter serious challenges. Extensive, and expensive, dredging may be required to allow continued barge and river freighter traffic.
In other areas, where river flows will significantly increase, such as along the major Siberian river systems and in the northwest of the country, river transport may be enhanced and facilitated. The exception to this rule may occur in areas where the earlier arrival of spring weather and the more pronounced melt-off of winter snow and ice lead to river ice jams and flooding.xcii
Another potentially significant transportation impact from climate change is the increased possibility of sea passage through Arctic waters. The so-called Northern Sea Route (NSR) that runs from near the island of Novaya Zemlya to the Bering Strait offers the prospect of up to a 40 percent savings in sea distance for journeys between northern Europe and Pacific Rim ports in either North America or northeastern Asia.xciii By 2020, the navigation season along the NSR will increase from around 36 days at present to around 40 days per summer.xciv Furthermore, the reduction in the extent of Arctic ice will allow vessels to travel in deeper waters farther from shore. Nonetheless, Arctic Sea shipping will not be without its share of challenges. Icebergs will continue to pose hazards to navigation, and bitter storms may produce significant wave action.
Human Health
Climate change may present Russia with a host of new and unwelcome challenges by
2030—both in the form of dangers related directly to climate and in the form of pest-borne disease.
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
