This paper does not represent US Government views.
Of particular significance for response to climate change impacts will be the Ministry’s units with responsibility for forest fire prevention and response, maritime emergencies, flood protection and response, and search and rescue. The Ministry is Moscow-based but has regional centers across Russia, including several in southern Siberia that could be especially important in ensuring timely response to climate change-related disasters.
Another important component of Russia’s coping capacity comes from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet or Hydromet). Hydromet is the rough equivalent of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is active in monitoring, assessment, analysis, and prediction of weather and climate. Hydromet operates the Russian weather service, including over 1,600 meteorological stations across Russia,ci as well as serving as the leading scientific organization and the lead Russian representative for international negotiations and scientific undertakings related to climate change. Its research institutes work in close collaboration with institutes under the Russian Academy of Sciences, as well as leading Russian participation in the IPCC and other scientific assessment and forecasting activities.
Despite the considerable capabilities of both of these governmental organizations to analyze and respond to natural disasters, Russia will face a number of challenges in this context. Effective adaptation to climate change will require the application of huge resources and, more difficult, careful policy reforms. For example, policymakers will have to decide what to do with the residents of Russia’s outsized northern urban centers. These Arctic cities are a monument to the sensibilities of Soviet planners—and an economic disaster.cii Thawing permafrost will pose more problems for these cities, and many of these cities sit on or near the banks of the Siberian rivers that will experience significant increases in flows and increased risks of flooding. Yet mass relocation would be both costly and politically challenging.
Other Urban Infrastructure
In the period to 2030, climate change could have a variety of impacts on urban infrastructure in Russia. Some of these impacts have already been discussed above, such as the potential for a reduction in heating requirements and heating loads that could accompany an increase in wintertime temperatures.
Another broad category of impact—but a negative one—is projected sea-level rise. This impact has the potential to bring significant challenges to a host of Russian cities and port complexes. Particularly vulnerable is Russia’s second city, St. Petersburg, which is already regularly at risk of flooding when strong winds blow to the east from the Gulf of Finland. This vulnerability will only rise as sea level rises and storm surges grow more intense.ciii The risks of catastrophic flooding in St. Petersburg before 2030, and of consequent damage to both the economy and to unique historical buildings, is great.
St. Petersburg is not the only city at risk. The level of the Black Sea has been rising since the 1920s, and the rate of rise has increased significantly since the 1980s (currently about 2 centimeters per year).civ This will affect Russia’s main warm water port complex at Novorossiysk, where dry cargoes, crude oil, and refined petroleum products are all exported. It will also affect Russia’s main Black Sea military base, which is at
Sevastopol, in neighboring Ukraine. Outside the Black Sea area, Russia’s vital
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
