This paper does not represent US Government views.
deepwater Atlantic basin port at Murmansk, which comprises both military and civilian capacity, will also be at risk to rising sea levels, as will the Pacific Rim ports, including Vladivostok and others.
As a general matter, Russia’s population is projected to experience significant risks in the period to 2030 and beyond from extreme weather events—floods, torrential rains, severe winds, tornados, hurricanes, and the like. Officially designated dangerous hydrometeorological events across all of Russia have been growing markedly more common for the past decade-plus.cv This trend is expected to continue to 2030 and afterward. Russia’s major urban centers may experience periods of drought combined with heat waves. In such circumstances, the risks of heat-related or disease-related illness could rise significantly.
International Issues
The international treatment of the Arctic over the next 20 or so years and questions of immigration related to climate change will affect Russia.
Greenhouse warming may bring greater changes in the Arctic than anywhere else on the planet. As has been discussed above, pronounced warming is already eroding the polar ice cap, and the thermal qualities of open water are contributing in turn to further warming and further melt-off.
This all translates into the Arctic being a much less imposing and more hospitable place than it has been in the past. Summers will bring increasingly extensive open seas that will facilitate speedy sea transportation of goods between northern Europe and the Pacific coasts of North America and northeastern Asia.cvi (See transportation discussion above.) New ports are being built along the Russian Arctic coast.
In addition, the warmer Arctic is engendering increased interest on the part of all of the littoral states in off-shore development. In 2007, the Russian polar scientist and politician Artur Chilingarov led an undersea expedition intended to bolster Russian claims that the Arctic is predominantly within the exclusive economic zone of Russia. One of Chilingarov’s key arguments is that the undersea Lomonosov Ridge extends from Russian territory and therefore validates Russia’s claim to half of Arctic Ocean. Complicating matters further, there is no clear agreement as to the legal regime that should govern competing claims in the Arctic.cvii Chilingarov’s expedition culminated with the depositing of a Russian flag on the sea bottom, some 2.5 miles below the surface. “The Arctic has special geopolitical importance for Russia,” Chilingarov later said.cviii
Given that Russia is not alone in its strong economic and security interests in the Arctic, climate changes that affect the Arctic could prompt the development of new military bases and activity. In late January 2009, military and political leaders from NATO met in Reykjavik, Iceland, to discuss how to manage the opportunities and challenges posed by a warming Arctic. The Secretary-General of NATO, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, told the assembled audience, “Climate change is not a fanciful idea. It is already a reality, a reality that brings with it certain new challenges, including for NATO. Several Arctic rim countries are strengthening their capabilities, and military activity in the High North region has been steadily increasing.”cix It is thus possible to imagine a significant
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
