This paper does not represent US Government views.
increase in military presence in the Arctic, beyond what has been the case since the end of the Cold War.
Another international issue facing Russia is climate-related migration. Already today, Russia is the world’s second biggest destination for migration (after the United States), attracting an estimated seven million migrants in 2008, of whom only about four million were legal.cx At present, most migrants present in Russia are from the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, and they seek economic opportunity to help support families in their countries of origin. Many migrants are involved in construction, other manual labor, and trading, especially in foodstuffs. In the Russian Far East and Primorskiy Kray, there are also a significant number of temporary workers from northeastern China. In short, today’s migration to Russia seems to be significantly motivated by the “pull” phenomenon of economic opportunity.
By 2030, migration may become more of a “push” phenomenon. Water availability is projected to become an increasingly serious challenge in Central Asia, Mongolia, and northeastern China, and simultaneously droughts are projected to become more frequent. Glacial-fed rivers are at risk of becoming more and more depleted by 2030.cxi The ability of the Central Asian states to adapt to a changing climate may well be more limited than is the case with Russia. In turn, migration may become a source of instability within Russia, especially in difficult economic times. Already today, nationalist and reactionary political and social groupings are committing increasing numbers of hate crimes in Russian cities and towns. A Moscow-based nongovernmental organization that monitors hate crimes recorded over 500 attacks against foreigners in 2008, a one-third increase over 2007.cxii
Adaptive Capacity
The impacts of climate change will be felt differentially, depending upon how well a society can cope with or adapt to climate change, that is, its adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is defined by the IPCC as “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.”cxiii Although the specific determinants (or “drivers”) of adaptive capacity are a matter of debate among researchers, there is good agreement that economic, human, and environmental resources are essential elements. Some components of this adaptive capacity are near term, such as the ability to deliver aid swiftly to those affected by, e.g., flooding or droughts. Other components include a high enough level of education so that people can change livelihoods, sufficient unmanaged land that can be brought into food production, and institutions that provide knowledge and assistance in times of change. For instance, Yohe and Tolcxiv identified eight qualitative “determinants of adaptive capacity,” many of which are societal in character, although the scientists draw on an economic vocabulary and framing:
- The range of available technological options for adaptation.
- The availability of resources and their distribution across the population.
- The structure of critical institutions, the derivative allocation of decision-making authority, and the decision criteria that would be employed.
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
