This paper does not represent US Government views.
In the real world, a variety of factors will play into the overall calculus of Russia’s adaptive capacity. Evolving socioeconomic conditions will be one key factor. To highlight this fact, one can compare the adaptation of the Russian oil industry to the adaption of its gas industry in the period since the breakup of the USSR. In the late 1990s and the first years of the current decade, the Russian oil industry experienced rapid innovation that reflected new ownership forms, new managerial techniques, and the introduction of international technology. Production skyrocketed, especially after the 1998 financial crash, while environmental impacts for the oil industry as a whole (spills, emissions, and accidents) dropped. By comparison, the relatively traditionalist Russian gas industry, where there was substantially less commercial, managerial, and technological change, evolved less dramatically.
In the area of Russian agriculture, socioeconomic forms and institutions most likely will be significant in determining the efficacy of the sector’s adaptation to climate change.cxvii One particular shortcoming will be the relative weakness of agricultural education and training, akin to the extension service programs operated by the US Department of Agriculture. Russia’s rural population is generally the country’s most conservative social grouping; adapting to changing climatic conditions will require innovation that has historically been alien to much of rural Russian society.
Strengths/Weaknesses in Adaptive Capacity Assessments
Even comparative measures of adaptive capacity only allow analysts to ask better focused questions about area or local conditions that contribute to or reduce resilience. It is likely, for instance, that for particular places in Russia important variables or domains are not included. For agricultural regions, this might include the extent of irrigation; for urban areas, better measures of education could be important. The measure of unmanaged land does not account for the potential usefulness of that land. However, comparative measures such as these can be an important first step toward determining where to direct resources—for further analysis or additional factors.
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
