This paper does not represent US Government views.
Conclusions: High Risk Impacts
Energy. Russia’s current and foreseeable future economic health depends extremely heavily on Russia’s ability to produce and export oil and natural gas. The oil and gas infrastructure that exists today was not designed with an eye to vulnerability stemming from a changing climate—such as structural subsidence, pipeline crossings at surging rivers, and sea-level rise. Therefore, current production will be increasingly at risk in the coming years. Moreover, as production from traditional Russian gas supply provinces declines, Russia must develop replacement sources. The Yamal Peninsula and Barents Sea (including the Shtokman field) are absolute priorities, and the Russian Far East is a secondary priority. The impacts of a changing climate may delay significantly (or significantly raise the cost of) efforts to bring these new production areas on-line, which could affect Russia’s fiscal position and balance of payments.
Agriculture. By 2030, Russia will begin to experience significant changes in agriculture. The critical question will be whether the positive impacts – longer growing season, new land that can be put under the plow, and the possibility of introducing new varieties and new crops—will outweigh the significant negative impacts. In this latter regard, the reduction in precipitation in parts of Russia’s traditional agricultural belts and the projected reduction in yields for traditional grain crops are significant considerations. Also significant is the projected increasing reliance on irrigation and chemical additives to deter pests and enrich soils. Rural Russia historically has been a very traditionalist part of the country, and to date Russia has not developed widespread systems to educate farmers, particularly to help them anticipate and adapt to changes in their growing conditions stemming from climate change. There are risks that rural Russia simply will not adapt itself in a timely manner to the agricultural realities of a changing climate. Russia’s food supply could be under stress.
Migration. Many of Russia’s southern neighbors face a drier, hotter future in which economic prospects may become increasingly dire. If these neighbors are unable to adapt themselves in a timely manner and provide for their populations, Russia may experience significant new migration pressures, which could plausibly be associated with greater instability and ethnic strife in affected Russian cities and towns.
Accentuated Socio-Economic and Socio-Political Stresses. Russia is a massive country with a pronounced continental climate, thus extreme weather is not entirely unfamiliar. Nor is hardship unfamiliar to the people of Russia. Nonetheless, the significant increase in dangerous weather events over the last two decades, and the prospect of a continuing trend in this regard, make clear that extreme weather may be the sword of Damocles hanging over Russia’s future. Heat waves, wind storms, droughts, and severe flooding may result in considerable damage to infrastructure, impacts on livelihoods, and even significant loss of life. These threats, in turn, may place even greater socio-economic and socio-political stress on parts of the country where the relationship between the government and governed is already tense. Areas such as the North Caucasus have already seen political tensions and instability that are unrelated to climate change. By 2030, however, climate change could significantly exacerbate such areas of stress.
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This paper does not represent US Government views.
