Page:Indian Journal of Economics Volume 2.djvu/57

?I?T OF EOONOMIO D?ELOPMENT ? Hough?n's valuable prices quoted by Thorold Rogers. ? Years of Maximum Prices Inte, val in Years Years of Maximum Prices Interval in Years 1670 1721 7 11 1677 1782 9 10 1686 1742 10 11 1696 1758 4 10 1700 1768 10 7 1710 1770 11 18 1721 1788 Here again we find the recurrence of similar intervals: especially 7, 10 and 11 years. The total number of trade cycles from 1670 to 1907 ?s 26, if the above dates be taken as correct; and the ?able below shows how they are distributed according t,o duration. The upper line shows cycles respectively of each duration, length of shown in the number of that is of each interval from maximum to maximum, as the lower line. No. of eycles? ? 2 0 0 6 1 4 7 8 0 2 1 '0 Duration in years ? 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 18 14 15 Although the ?o?al number of cycles is not large, i? is highly improbable that these figures with three distinct maxima would arise from a chance distribut;ion. Consequently justified :-- the following deductions seem to be (1) As there has been no four years' major cycle for more than a century, it is unlikely that in the near future a major cycle will be of less duration than seven years; (2) If a cycle has extended beyond seven years 1 H's?y o! A?iculturz a?ut Pricz?. Vol. vi. The index numbers ealeulatsd [tom 1/t oommodities are: 169?, 100; 1594, 105; 159, 10; 1696, 11; 1597, 114.