Page:Indian Journal of Economics Volume 2.djvu/58

46 H. $. JE?ON$ i? will most; likely be 9 or 10 years in duration'; (8) bu? if i? has ex?ended beyond 10 years i? will mos? probably ex?end ?o 18 or 14 years, ?he former being ?he more probable. There is also a small probability, say abou? 1 in 10, of a cycle being 11 years in length, ?hrough ?he prolongation of a ?en year cycle, or of. minor cycles so compounding as ?o produce i?. 11. Forego. st ?d policy in regard to ?ri?es and wages.--I? is proverbially dangerous ?o prophesy; ye? success in business and even in governmen? depends very largely upon a correc? anticipation of future events, ?hrough an estimation of. presen? ?endencies. I? is solely wi?h ?he objec? of illustrating how ?he generali- zations relating ?o prices and wages may be u?ilized ?o obtain some in?elligen? forecas? of ?heir probable upward or downward ?rend ?ha? ?he following a?emp? is made a? a forecas? covering ?he nex? few years. Wi?h ?he lapse of time additional da?a will become available, and ?he forecas? may be modified accordingly. Bu? a? ?he momen? when ?he decision whether or no? ?o enter in?o contracts for a large public i? is highly impor?an? ?o make work is imminent, or obtain ?he best? possible up-to-date. forecas? of ?his kind. Owing ?o ?he constant enormous creation of credit by ?he belligeren? countries and ?o ?he continuation of o?her causes resulting from ?he war, i? would seem probable ?ha? prices will continue ?o rise rapidly so long as ?he war endures. Possibly in Europe ?here migh? be some fall, or a halt in ?he rise, as soon as decisive military events have brough? peace nego- tiations within sigh?. I? seems more, probable, however, ?ha? ?he prices of me?als, machinery and all construe- I There appear to me to be indications, difficult to put in a few words, that the most probable duration o! the present and future cycles will be 7, or 10, or 18 or 14 years, the last two figures being equally likely, but both much less likely than 7 or 10-years which periods probably accord better with the modern period of gestation in the majority o! industries when national economy is un- disturbed by war.