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Graunt's Observations.

Example of David[1], from attempting any computation of the People of this populous place; but hereupon I both examined the lawfulness of making such Enquiries, and, being satisfied thereof, went about the work it self in this manner: viz.

2. First, I imagined, That, if the Conjecture of the worthy Person afore-mentioned had any truth in it, there must needs be about six or seven Millions of People in London |81| now; but, repairing to my Bills, I found, that not above 15000 per Annum were buried; and consequently, that not above one in four hundred must die per Annum, if the Total were but six Millions.

3. Next considering, That it is esteemed an even lay, whether any man lives ten years longer[2], I supposed it was the same, that one of any ten might die within one year. But when I considered, that of the 15000 afore-mentioned about 5000 were Abortive and Still-born, or died of Teeth, Convulsion, Rickets, or as Infants, and Chrysoms, and Aged; I concluded, that of Men and Women, between ten and sixty, there scarce died 10000 per Annum in London, which number being multiplied by 10[2], there must be but 10000[3] in all, that is not the 160 part of what the Alderman imagined. These were but sudden thoughts on both sides, and both far from truth, I thereupon endeavoured to get a little nearer, thus: viz.

4. I considered, that the number of Child-bearing Women might be about double to the Births: forasmuch as such Women, one with another, have scarce more than one Child in two years. The number of Births I found, by those years wherein the Registries were well kept, to have been somewhat less than |82| the Burials. The Burials in these late years at a Medium are about 13000, and consequently the Christenings not above 12000. I therefore esteemed the number of Teeming-Women to be 24000: then I imagined, that there might be twice as many Families, as of such Women; for that there

  1. 2 Samuel, xxiv. 1—9; 1 Chronicles, xxi. 1—8.
  2. 2.0 2.1 If it be "an even lay, whether any man lives ten years longer," Graunt's multiplier, seven lines lower, should be 20, not 10.
  3. 10000 is a misprint for 100000.