judge you from your utterances. You may fear defeat from two causes: the disaffection of the regular party machinists, or the disaffection of the intelligibly independent and the conservative elements which stand between the two parties but are necessary to the victory of either. If you should suffer defeat in consequence of strong declarations for sound principles which might attract the latter but disaffect the former, it would be a defeat with honor. If you should suffer defeat by surrendering sound principles and which might propitiate the former but drive away the latter, it would be a defeat with disgrace tainting your whole future career.
Where is the greater danger? The regular machine elements do not like you because they know that at heart you do not belong to them, whatever you may say. If they support you it is because they cannot do otherwise; they care for party success and are nothing without their party. If they did wish your defeat, any concessions of principle you may make to them will simply deprive you as a man of their respect without winning their support. I think they will support you because they cannot do otherwise without destroying themselves. If Conkling himself sulks, his following will go on without him and he will lose it.
The independent and conservative elements care little for mere party. If they support you, it is only because they see reason to hope for good government at your hands. They would have supported Hayes heartily and vigorously, and expected to favor you in the same measure as you would give assurance of improving upon what he had begun. In the same measure as they see reason to fear a reaction, they will drop off, thinking that it might be just as well to try a change of party. It may be said that they are not very numerous. But they are certainly numerous enough to hold the balance of power in the
