the State which I expected, and which I have in the meantime received.
New York must be considered a doubtful State. If the Democrats nominate a decent man, it will require not only a better candidate but also a united and strong effort on the part of the Republicans to carry it. There is an uncommonly large and influential independent element here whose interest is mainly centered on the administrative reform question. This element is apt to develop a strong campaigning force when its interest is well enlisted; it has in this respect on several occasions shown remarkable efficiency. It will, I think, rally to the support of any Republican candidate of unblemished character who may be counted upon to conduct the National Administration in accord with the reform idea. Of those who have of late been most prominently mentioned as possible Republican nominees, Edmunds would probably be the strongest here; but Gresham, Hawley, Lincoln and several others would, I have no doubt, run well.
The two candidates most spoken of, Blaine and Arthur, would here be the least acceptable. I know a great many people in this State as well as outside of it, and I speak advisedly when I express the opinion that Blaine cannot possibly carry New York. In some papers I see it stated that he would have the support of the Independents as much as anybody. Such opinions are simply absurd. He has, indeed, a good many enthusiastic friends who make much noise but are not nearly strong enough to give him the State; on the other hand, he will not only not have the united support of the Independents, but a very large portion of them will, in unison with a considerable number of hitherto faithful Republicans, actively oppose him. I see good reasons for apprehending that Blaine's nomination would be followed instantly by a break. I am advised by men who know the State thoroughly that in every one
