of the 12,000 school districts there are some Republicans who quietly but firmly declare their determination under no circumstances to vote for Blaine. That their number is very large in this immediate vicinity I know from personal observation. This feeling in New York would scarcely remain without influence in Connecticut and New Jersey. I have reports from Massachusetts that Blaine would find it a desperate job to carry that State. It looks very much as if Blaine's nomination would mean disintegration and disaster from the very beginning.
Arthur stands much better. His Administration has in many respects given satisfaction; especially among the business men of this city he has many friends. But he has been so much mixed up with faction fights in New York politics and identified with a class of politicians who have made themselves so odious with a majority of the party, that he would lose a great many votes. The party support would, especially in the country districts, be languid, and the Independents would mostly treat the matter with indifference. This, of course, is not the way to carry New York under present circumstances. Moreover, there is serious doubt as to whether he could carry Ohio—this on account of the old Garfield feelings.
I write you this as the candid opinion of one who wants to see the Republican party succeed and hopes to be able to contribute his own efforts to that end, but who believes also that in order to succeed, it must deserve and invite success by a good and wise nomination.
FROM P. B. PLUMB
Private.
I duly received yours of 12th. I agree with you about New
York being doubtful—but if we can nominate a candidate
