SECRET//NOFORN
2
- (U//
FOUO) Shifting regional power balances will continue to drive security competition across the Indo-Pacific, leading to increased defense investment by many countries in the region, including India and Japan. - (U//
FOUO) Proliferation, maritime security, terrorism, and unresolved territorial disputes will remain the primary security concerns and sources of conflict. - (U//
FOUO) Loss of U.S. preeminence in the Indo-Pacific would weaken our ability to achieve U.S. interests globally. - (U//
FOUO) Strong U.S. alliances are key to deterring conflict and advancing our vital interests. - (U//
FOUO) Strategic competition between the United States and China will persist, owing to the divergent nature and goals of our political and economic systems. China will circumvent international rules and norms to gain an advantage. - (U//
FOUO) China aims to dissolve U.S. alliances and partnership in the region. China will exploit vacuums and opportunities created by these diminished bonds. - (U//
FOUO) A strong India, in cooperation with like-minded countries, would act as a counterbalance to China. - (U//
FOUO) Chinese economic, diplomatic, and military influence will continue to increase in the near-term and challenge the U.S. ability to achieve its national interests in the Indo-Pacific region. - (U//
FOUO) China seeks to dominate cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence and bio-genetics, and harness them in the service of authoritarianism. Chinese dominance in these technologies would pose profound challenges to free societies. - (U//
FOUO) China's proliferation of its digital surveillance, information controls, and influence operations will damage U.S. efforts to promote our values and national interests in the Indo-Pacific region and, increasingly, in the Western hemisphere and at home. - (U//
FOUO) China will take increasingly assertive steps to compel unification with Taiwan. - (U//
FOUO) Russia will remain a marginal player in the Indo-Pacific region relative to the United States, China, and India.
SECRET//NOFORN
